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Maliki leads in Iraqi poll count
Early indications from parliamentary elections in Iraq favor Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his State of Law Coalition, although official results for the 325-seat parliament will not be known until Wednesday. These are the second national polls since the downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Amid tight security and a ballot marred by terrorist attacks that claimed the lives of 38 people, 70% of voters turned out in Baghdad, while there was a 50% increase in voting in Sunni districts such as al-Anbar province. More than 120 international monitors oversaw the polls, in which 6,000 candidates representing 86 political parties campaigned.
Maliki seems to be the luckiest of all Iraqi heavyweights, having
antagonized many players in the Iraqi political scene. However, the entire state apparatus - and plenty of funds - were at his disposal ahead of the elections, enabling him to dish out money and rewards. The State of Law Coalition came out as the largest list in the provincial elections of 2009, receiving 28.8% of the vote and 126 out of 440 seats. Back then, as is the case today, the coalition presented a very non-sectarian agenda, promising to provide clean water, better schools, cheaper hospitals and stronger security to all Iraqis.
Sunni heavyweights on the State of Law Coalition (such asFawzi Abu Risheh and Yawer al-Shummari) also helped polish the premier's image in the eyes of ordinary Sunnis, helping to split the Sunni vote and minimizing contenders on different electoral lists who were allied to his predecessor, Iyad Allawi, or the Iraqi Accordance Front. Maliki was also served well for the Sunni vote on Sunday by establishing clear distance from Iran with his refusal to stand in the Iran-backed Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a feat that overcame Sunni voters' reservations about his performance.
The declining popularity of other Shi'ite groups, like the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), could be another factor if Maliki is declared victor after Wednesday. In the provincial elections of 2009, the SIIC lost eight of the 11 provinces it once controlled. The SIIC-headed United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), of which Maliki had been a member, originally won 48.1% of the votes in 2005, gaining 140 out of 275 seats. But strong ties to Iran and the UIA's engagement in a civil war, through the Badr Brigade, shattered its image in the eyes of many voters.
The fact that the UIA was unable to bring reconciliation or security to Iraq added to Shi'ite setbacks, as did the visible distance that former patrons like the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, kept from all candidates during election campaigning. Ammar al-Hakim, who succeeeded his father, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, after the influential SIIC leader's death from cancer in 2009, is also by no means as seasoned or as popular a politician.
According to a government-mandated poll, Hakim's list will secure no more than 17.2% of parliament in 2010, a drop of more than 30% from where it stood in 2005. The secular agenda of other contenders like ex-prime minister Allawi, who won no more than 9% of parliament in 2009, makes him unattractive to both religiously driven Shi'ites and Sunnis. This explains why, according to the same government poll, he will at best get no more than 17.2% seats in the next parliament.
Maliki was also helped by the weak popularity base of INA hopefuls like Adel Abdul Mehdi of the SIIC and Ibrahim al-Jaafari of Da'wa. Abdul Mehdi was written off by many because of his Iranian connection. Jaafarri's poor track record when serving as premier in 2005-2006 is remembered only too well by voters.
Not only did Jaafarri aggravate civil war by refusing to do anything about armed militias roaming the streets of Baghdad, he happened to be in power when a terrorist attack struck at a holy Shi'ite shrine in the mixed Sunni-Shi'ite city of Samarah in February 2006. The attack infuriated Shi'ites, who accused him of poor leadership, and Sunnis, who accused him of not lifting a finger to protect them when revenge attacks struck at the Sunni community in the immediate aftermath of the bombings.
The real tipping point in Sunday's election is the overwhelming vote of the Sunni community, which learned from its mistake of boycotting the 2005 poll. Hundreds of Sunnis, including top-notch businessmen and professionals who left Iraq in large numbers five years ago, collectively decided on casting their vote this time to prevent the creation of a parliament that is packed with Iran-backed, religiously driven Shi'ite politicians.
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